Trump Is In; Hold Tickets ’Til You Win
Trump should, based the aggregate polling, the Sopranos-style Nu Yawk beating Trump gave Cruz in the Empire State and the original 13 colonies, prevail in Indiana, where large Cruz-oriented constituencies could have troubled Trump a month ago. With this, the path to 1237 remains no longer an obstacle, especially as GOP elites tamper down any talk of a Cleveland coup. Once cashed in July, it will be soon enough to begin considering the exceptional value the general election already proffers for Trump ticket-takers.
Another Short Term Profit
Saturday turned in another profit-making opportunity as early spin out of the caucus states led over-reacting investors to drop Trump to 58%. By Monday, Trump regained back to 65% once the effect of Kentucky and Louisiana’s victories were felt in the media narrative, and betters started to realize the real effect of Saturday night was to place Trump in excellent shape to steal all of Florida’s delegates come March 15. At this point, we would recommend either a hold or sell position on Trump, as both Michigan and Mississippi will likely prove close, and the anxious media narrative to spin an anti-Trump storyline out of a loss in either state will temporarily inflate Trump fears amongst the market.
Conventions & Debates Create Noise Not Long-Term Reversals
A good time to trade in and out of the election trading markets surrounds two major events: the conventions; and the debates. Contrary to conventional wisdom, conventions and debates rarely change minds. Our systemic analysis — focusing on foundational aspects of elections shaping voter choice usually a year out from election day — reveals what psychologists already know: we make up our minds before our consciousness is even aware of it. However, the traders still do not know this. How? Mainline media, leading polling analysts, and the political class of nitwits and dimwits that propagate the modern political “sciences” remain utterly clueless about this, despite surveys and studies in their own profession debunking much of their narrative around political campaigns. Why? Journalists, the media, the consultants, and the voters themselves WANT to believe the campaign matters, the conventions matter, the debates matter, the tactics matter, the one-liners matter, for the same reason people want to believe they can control the outcome of their lives and wait to read the ending of the book until the end: it adds drama and meaning to every-day events and their attention to the daily narrative. In truth, conventions and debate CAN shape polls, but that is because polls only tell you WHO answered the poll, not whether any minds of actual voters CHANGED. This, in the terminology of the nerds, is known as “non-response bias.” Basically, conventions and debate and big events shape transitory excitement, NOT lasting, long-term voter decisions. That transitory excitement translates into who feels like answering the poll, be it a live phone poll, cell phone poll, automated poll, or online poll. If people feel their candidate did well, they are eager to brag, like fans of a sport team that just took the lead; if people feel their candidate did poorly, they are despondent to answer, like fans of a sports team that just fell behind. As the game changes, so will their opinion, and nothing will actually change their fandom support of the particular team. So, as subscribers here bet ON Trump before his convention, then sold him right before the Democratic convention, and then bought his election stock as soon as the convention and post-convention media bashing dropped his stock to a low of 18 (now trading at 32, for a profit of about 75% in less than 30 days), we will be advising the same surrounding the debate. A debate article is forthcoming...